My research indicates that the smaller spatial scale of institutions may change political behavior in ways that prevent the development of needed public goods, such as housing and public health infrastructure. In short, the design of political institutions can subvert representation and collective action around the siting of things society needs, but nobody wants nearby.

Journal Articles

4. Michael Hankinson and Asya Magazinnik. "The Supply-Equity Trade-off: The Effect of Spatial Representation on the Local Housing Supply." Conditionally accepted at The Journal of Politics.

While the institutions that structure spatial representation vary widely across U.S. municipalities, the distributive consequences of local electoral rules have not been adequately studied through a spatial lens. We leverage the California Voting Rights Act of 2001, which compelled over one hundred cities to switch from at-large to district elections for city council, to causally identify how equalizing spatial representation changes the permitting of new housing. District elections decrease the supply of new multifamily housing, particularly in segregated cities with sizable and systematically underrepresented minority groups. But we also find evidence that district elections end the disproportionate channeling of new housing into minority neighborhoods. Our findings highlight a trade-off: at-large representation may facilitate the production of goods with diffuse benefits and concentrated costs, but it does so by forcing less politically powerful constituencies to bear the brunt of those costs.

3. Justin de Benedictis-Kessner and Michael Hankinson. 2019. "Concentrated Burdens: How Self-Interest and Partisanship Shape Opinion on Opioid Treatment Policy." American Political Science Review 113(4): 1078-1084. Preprint | Replication Files

When does self-interest influence public opinion on contentious public policies? The bulk of theory in political science suggests that self-interest is only a minor force in public opinion. Using nationally-representative survey data, we show how financial and spatial self-interest and partisanship all shape public opinion on opioid treatment policy. We find that a majority of respondents support a redistributive funding model for treatment programs, while treatment funded by taxation based on a community's overdose rate is less popular. Moreover, financial self-interest cross-pressures lower-income Republicans, closing the partisan gap in support by more than half. We also experimentally test how the spatial burden of siting treatment clinics alters policy preferences. People across the political spectrum are less supportive when construction of a clinic is proposed closer to their home. These results highlight how partisanship and self-interest interact in shaping preferences on public policy with concentrated burdens.

2. Michael Hankinson. 2018. "When Do Renters Behave Like Homeowners? High Rent, Price Anxiety, and NIMBYism." American Political Science Review 112(3): 473-493. Preprint | Online Appendix | Replication Files

How does spatial scale affect support for public policy? Does supporting housing citywide but ``Not In My Back Yard'' (NIMBY) help explain why housing has become increasingly difficult to build in once affordable cities? I use two original surveys to measure how support for new housing varies between the city-scale and neighborhood-scale. Together, an exit poll of 1,660 voters during the 2015 San Francisco election and a national survey of over 3,000 respondents provide the first empirical measurements of NIMBYism at the individual-level. While homeowners are sensitive to housing's proximity, renters typically do not express NIMBYism. However, in high-rent cities, renters demonstrate NIMBYism on par with homeowners, despite continuing to support large increases in the housing supply citywide. These scale-dependent preferences not only help explain the deepening affordability crisis, but show how institutions can undersupply even widely supported public goods. When preferences are scale-dependent, the scale of decision making matters.

1. Jackelyn Hwang, Michael Hankinson, and K. Steven Brown. 2015. "Racial and Spatial Targeting: Segregation and Subprime Lending within and across Metropolitan Areas." Social Forces 93(3): 1081-1108. Preprint | Replication Files

Recent studies find that high levels of black-white segregation increased rates of foreclosures and subprime lending across US metropolitan areas during the housing crisis. These studies speculate that segregation created distinct geographic markets that enabled subprime lenders and brokers to leverage the spatial proximity of minorities to disproportionately target minority neighborhoods. Yet, the studies do not explicitly test whether the concentration of subprime loans in minority neighborhoods varied by segregation levels. We address this shortcoming by integrating neighborhood-level data and spatial measures of segregation to examine the relationship between segregation and subprime lending across the 100 largest US metropolitan areas.

Working Papers

Justin de Benedictis-Kessner and Michael Hankinson. "How and Why the Identity of Substance Users Shapes Public Opinion on Opioid Policy." Under review.

How do the identities of potential policy beneficiaries sway public support for these policies in a public health setting? Using a factorial randomized vignette experiment fielded on a high-quality nationally-representative survey sample, we show that the racial identity of substance users depicted in a news story shapes public opinion on policies to address the opioid overdose crisis. People display biases in favor of members of their own racial identity group that manifest in their support of treatment-based policies. However, racial identity-based biases are less uniform in attitudes towards punitive policies to address the opioid crisis. We show that these biases are unlikely to be explained by the common theoretic mechanism of differential perceived blame. Similar ingroup preferences are not observed for gender or residential context. These results highlight the continued centrality of race in the formation of public policy preferences.

Michael Hankinson, Asya Magazinnik, and Melissa Sands. "The Policy Hungry and The Policy Adjacent: How Affordable Housing Generates Policy Feedback Among Neighboring Residents."

Does a policy’s implementation affect future support for similar policies? We estimate the causal effect of new, nearby affordable housing on local support for funding affordable housing statewide. To do this, we geocode 463 affordable housing developments placed in service in the years between two nearly identical statewide ballot propositions funding affordable housing in California. The construction of nearby affordable housing causes majority-homeowner blocks to increase their support for the housing bond, while majority-renter blocks decrease their support. We attribute the positive effect among homeowners — "the policy adjacent" — to the housing's replacement of blight and improvement of property values. The negative effect among renters is driven by gentrifying neighborhoods. Not receiving an affordable housing unit despite their eligibility, these "policy hungry" renters may attribute the new development to further increasing the rising rents around them. In turn, policy implementation can lead to negative feedback even among the policy's intended beneficiaries.

Other Publications

Michael Hankinson. 2013. "Externalities or Extortion? Privatizing Social Policy through Community Benefits Agreements." Harvard Journal of Real Estate 6-13.

From design to approval to construction, the development process provides countless junctures of ethical risk, particularly in mitigating aproject’s negative externalities. These externalities, ranging from congestion to gentrification, have been a constant source of friction between developers and neighboring residents. Indeed, the management of such externalities has required government intervention in the form of zoning and permit approval. Like any political process, permit approval consists of negotiating, bargaining, and promise making, actions inherently based on an ethics of trust and transparency. Recently, bargaining innovations have sought to lessen the role of government as a mediator between developers and community groups, potentially increasing the risk of violations of trust and transparency. In this article, I analyze these bargaining innovations to understand how investors, community advocates, and concerned citizens can better navigate the ethical risks of the development process.